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Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Posted March 28, 2008

Brian Peart, CEO of Nexus Financial Group, Inc and one of weekly survey experts, believes the stock market has bottomed and that over the next few months the market will begin to adjust to the reality that a recession is not happening.

Speaking at the Commercial Capital Net Branch Conference in Atlanta last week, Peart said, "Bear Stearns Monday was less important than what I will call, 'Lehman Tuesday'." Brian continued, "What we saw in those two days was a microcosm of what we will see over the next several months. The market has priced in a doom and gloom recession and the Bear Stearns fire sale was the climax. Without even one quarter of negative growth, most analysts are convinced we're already in recession. However, I believe a snapshot of the next 6 months is better seen in Tuesday's action. Fueled by fears, Lehman's stock was as low as $20 overnight Monday after they reported numbers that were down 57%, but not near as bad as expected. Lehman stock shot to $36 at the open and by week's end was trading at $48.

"I believe the market has priced in a full recession and though numbers will come in bad, they will not come in as bad as expected. I see negative growth in Q1, but not as deep as expected and Q2 will be up. Everyone I talk to on Main Street America is doing OK. Boomers still have retirement money to put to work, we are doing a ton of refinances in FL -- not everyone is upside down on their mortgage, I talk to businesses and most of them are doing quite well. I believe the intraday low around 11,600 on the Dow will prove to be the 52 week low. Clearly we haven't seen the end of the foreclosures and more bad news is coming, but this too shall pass."
Peart's mortgage company defied the general mortgage malaise and grew revenue 83% last year, while enjoying 166% increase in net profits. His commercial arm, Commercial Capital, LTD is funding $20 Million a month in commercial loans and is one of the fastest growing companies in the industry.

Don’t hesitate to call or email if you have any questions or would like to discuss a particular scenario in a little more detail.

Tony DeCresie
Commercial Capital, Ltd.

Your #1 Source for Commercial & Business Financing

Office: 863-298-8900 eFax: 863-877-4456 Cell: 813-833-3132

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